Newsletter November 14, 2024

What Trump’s Victory Means for America

Daniel A. Cox

In the 2024 election, Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris by sweeping all seven swing states. He won the popular vote as well, but by a relatively slim margin. When all the votes are counted (get it together California!) his margin is predicted to be only 1.5 points. For months the polls told us we were in a very close election and that’s exactly what we got.  

Now comes the time when we all attempt to decipher what voters were communicating about their interests. This is especially difficult to do in a close election. Political scientist Tom Wood observes that the nature of Trump’s win provides surprisingly little information about how he did it. On X he writes: “It’s the modesty of the shift in presidential vote, and the absence of geographical clustering, which belies simple explanations for Trump’s reelection.” In close elections, it is possible to make a compelling case that any issue or action was the one that made the difference.  

For this reason, I will refrain from making sweeping statements about the political fortunes of either party. We remain a very divided country, and Trump’s election is mostly an affirmation of that fact. That said, there are a few things that are worth noting.  

Politics is Still Personal 

The day after the election, MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow told her audience that it was time to mend fences with people in their lives. 

“We all need to participate in more civil society things than we have before. … Do you have any burned bridges in your past? Unburn them. Reconnect with people. Whether it’s your family, or the people on your block, or in your town, your old friends from school, that book club, that indivisible group maybe. Reconnect.” 

A lot of young women are not interested in listening to Maddow’s advice. During the first Trump presidency, Americans not only became more polarized in their view of the two political parties, but their understanding of politics also became more personal. In 2020, nearly two-thirds of Democrats and Republicans said they believe that “a person’s political views say a lot about what kind of person they are.”  

It’s not only existing personal relationships that will be impacted. In the 2024 election, single men and women moved further apart in their voting preferences. Sixty-five percent of single women voted for Harris compared to half (48 percent) of single men.

After the election there was a spike in interest in the 4B movement—a movement that encourages women to avoid dating, marriage, and sex with men. Trump remains an incredibly polarizing figure. Even out of office, many single women expressed deep reservations about dating someone who supported him. In a poll we released last year, sixty percent of women said they would be less likely to date a Trump supporter, including more than half who said they would be “a lot less likely” to do so. It’s almost certainly going to be a more salient consideration now that he is back in office. 

The End of National Campaigns on Abortion 

Since the overturn of Roe v. Wade, Democrats have campaigned vigorously on the issue of abortion. In the closing days of the 2024 campaign, the Harris campaign ads featured abortion more than any other issue—according to the Wesleyan Media Project. But if Democrats’ strategy paid off in 2022, mitigating loses, it was a bust in 2024. Americans continue to oppose very restrictive abortion policies, but Trump’s position of leaving it up to the states effectively sidelined the issue for many voters. The Associated Press’ VoteCast survey found that 3 in 10 pro-choice voters supported Trump. Harris received far fewer votes in the 10 states that had abortion referenda on the ballot than the measures themselves, seven of which passed. One possibility is that the ballot measures made it easier for pro-choice women to split the difference. In an interview with the New York Times, Trump voter Aly Bennett of St. Louis said: “You can vote for the Republican candidate while still supporting your views on reproductive health.” 

The issue did not drive turnout for Democrats either. The group that was supposed to be most energized by the abortion issue—young women—turned out to vote at lower rates this year and supported Trump at slightly higher rates than in 2020.  

If Republicans pass a national abortion ban, which Trump has opposed on record, it’s an entirely different ballgame. But at this very early stage, it doesn’t appear that abortion will be a top priority for Republicans. Until then, it’s unlikely that abortion will be a top-tier issue in national campaigns, although it will certainly remain important at the state level and in party primary campaigns. 

Outsider Advantage: Americans Still Hate Politicians 

Before the election, I noted that most Americans believe politicians have low moral and ethical standards. One of Trump’s most valuable assets is his enduring image as an outsider. Americans have never considered Trump a conventional politician. A Fox News poll conducted in 2017 found that 70 percent of voters said they believed Trump was an “outsider,” far more than believed he was knowledgeable, a strong leader, a problem solver or competent. 

The outsider appeal was persuasive across the political spectrum. In fact, Trump increased support in many Democratic-leaning districts. In Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Bronx district, Trump improved on his 2020 vote share by 11 points. When AOC asked her Instagram followers who voted for both her and Donald Trump why they did, here is some of what they said: 

“I feel like both you and Trump are real.” 

“I feel that you both are outsiders compared to the rest of DC and less ‘establishment.’” 

“Voted for Trump, but I like you and Bernie. I don’t trust either establishment politicians.” 

Trump remains a singular brand unto himself. His ability to lean on his nonpolitical identity as a “successful” real estate magnate, and the popular television host of The Apprentice sustained him during tumultuous times. Americans felt they knew Trump, even if a lot of what they knew about him they did not like. That didn’t stop voters from supporting him. Roughly one in ten Trump voters had a negative opinion of him. Americans crave authenticity—and in Trump, many believe they found it. 

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that in the two elections that Trump won, he did so as someone operating outside elected politics. His appeals to voters about taking on a broken, unresponsive, and corrupt government were less effective when he was the chief administrator of it. 

If you believe that either political party is poised to make a major overhaul of its agenda or identity, I wouldn’t hold my breath. My colleagues Ruy Texeira and Yuval Levin have argued that consistently close elections disincentivize the work of building durable majorities. They write: “Politicians learn big lessons from big losses or big wins, so neither party has learned much in a long time, and neither can grasp that it isn’t popular and could easily lose the next election.” 

For most of the last two decades, the Republican Party has been viewed more negatively than positively by the public. The Democrats’ decline has been more recent, but they’ve landed in a nearly identical position. Six in ten Americans view the Democratic Party unfavorably and sixty-one percent have an unfavorable opinion of the GOP. 

There will be plenty of twists and turns over the next few years, but there will be a considerable amount of stability as well. If the past is any guide, it’s quite likely that in the next election voters will want a change. Again. 

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